GoEnergy

Author: Steve Sabean

  • Potential Cooler Weather Shift; Injections at 51 Bcf

    EIA reported an increase in storage of 51 Bcf for the week ending October 13. Estimates were 44-69 Bcf, with median at 53 Bcf. Weather models show cooler temperatures for the end of October and into the first week of November. Higher power burn contributed to a reduction in the rate of inventory rebuilding.

    EIA Natural Gas Storage Data:

    • Total (10/13/17): 3,646 Bcf
    • Total (10/06/17): 3,595 Bcf
    • Net change: 51 Bcf
    • Implied flow: 51 Bcf
    • Year ago stocks: 3,825 Bcf
    • % change from year ago: -4.7 %
    • 5-year avg stocks: 3,681 Bcf
    • % change from 5-year avg: -1.0 %

  • EIA announced an injection of 87-Bcf, near consensus at 85 Bcf

    Government data showed inventories rose by 87 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 6th, to 3.595 trillion, matching the average change for the time of year. Estimates had ranged from 44 to 91 Bcf. Gas inventories continue to trail historical averages.

    Natural gas price rebounded from last week’s decline after forecasters see cooler temperatures towards the end of October and the odds of La Nina, a weather pattern that can bring frigid conditions to the northern tier of the country.

    EIA Natural Gas Storage Data:

    • Total (10/06/17): 3,595 Bcf
    • Total (09/29/17): 3,508 Bcf
    • Net change: 87 Bcf
    • Implied flow: 87 Bcf
    • Year ago stocks: 3,748 Bcf
    • % change from year ago: -4.1 %
    • 5-year avg stocks: 3,603 Bcf
    • % change from 5-year avg: -0.2 %

  • EIA Reports Weekly Natural Gas Storage Injection The Same As Forecast – 42 Bcf

    Stocks were 161 Bcf less than last year at this time and 8 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,516 Bcf.

     

    EIA Natural Gas Storage Data:

    • Total (09/29/17): 3,508 Bcf
    • Total (09/22/17): 3,466 Bcf
    • Net change: 42 Bcf
    • Implied flow: 42 Bcf
    • Year ago stocks: 3,669 Bcf
    • % change from year ago: -4.4 %
    • 5-year avg stocks: 3,516 Bcf
    • % change from 5-year avg: -0.2 %

     

  • About The Weekly U.S. EIA Natural Gas Storage Report

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Storage Report has been published every Thursday since 2002. It provides an overview of the level of natural gas inventories held in underground storage facilities throughout the United States.

    This weekly storage report can be an indicator of natural gas price strength or weakness. While this is a U.S. indicator it tends to also have an impact on Canadian prices, because of Canada’s sizable energy resources. The storage report along with current natural gas demand, production, and weather forecasts, contribute to the volatility and direction of natural gas prices in North America.

    An increase or decrease in natural gas inventories, compared to expectations, can imply weaker or stronger demand and will contribute to natural gas prices becoming bearish or bullish.

    The weekly stocks, as reported by the EIA, generally are the inventories of working gas as of the report date. The “net change” in reported stock levels reflects all events affecting working gas in storage, including injections, withdrawals, and reclassifications between base and working gas. The “implied flow” estimate represents movements of working natural gas into or out of underground natural gas storage facilities.

     

     

     

  • Net Increase Of 72 Bcf From The Previous Week

    Working gas in storage was 2,888 Bcf as of Friday, June 30, 2017, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 72 Bcf from the previous week. Analyst forecasts were calling for an injection of 60-70 bcf. Weather models are showing temperatures are likely to be mostly normal for the next two weeks.

    EIA Natural Gas Storage Data:

    • Total (06/30/17): 2,888 Bcf
    • Total (06/23/17): 2,816 Bcf
    • Net change: 72 Bcf
    • Implied flow: 72 Bcf
    • Year ago stocks: 3,173 Bcf
    • % change from year ago: -9.0 %
    • 5-year avg stocks: 2,701 Bcf
    • % change from 5-year avg: 6.9 %

  • Analysts estimated a 52 Bcf increase in inventories

    Working gas in storage was 2,816 Bcf as of Friday, June 23, 2017, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 46 Bcf from the previous week.

    EIA Natural Gas Storage Data:

    • Total (06/23/17): 2,816 Bcf
    • Total (06/16/17): 2,770 Bcf
    • Net change: 46 Bcf
    • Implied flow: 46 Bcf
    • Year ago stocks: 3,135 Bcf
    • % change from year ago: -10.2 %
    • 5-year avg stocks: 2,635 Bcf
    • % change from 5-year avg: 6.9 %

  • Estimates Were 55-57 Bcf

    EIA reported working gas in storage was 2,770 Bcf as of Friday, June 16, 2017. This represents a net increase of 61 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 324 Bcf less than last year at this time.

    EIA Natural Gas Storage Data:

    • Total (06/16/17): 2,770 Bcf
    • Total (06/09/17): 2,709 Bcf
    • Net change: 61 Bcf
    • Implied flow: 61 Bcf
    • Year ago stocks: 3,094 Bcf
    • % change from year ago: -10.5 %
    • 5-year avg stocks: 2,563 Bcf
    • % change from 5-year avg: 8.1 %

  • Storage Injections Were Much Less Than Market Expectations

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 78 Bcf injection into natural gas storage inventories in their weekly storage report for the week to June 9th – much less than market expectation of 89 Bcf.

    EIA Natural Gas Storage Data:

    • Total (06/09/17): 2,709 Bcf
    • Total (06/02/17): 2,631 Bcf
    • Net change: 78 Bcf
    • Implied flow: 78 Bcf
    • Year ago stocks: 3,031 Bcf
    • % change from year ago: -10.6 %
    • 5-year avg stocks: 2,481 Bcf
    • % change from 5-year avg: 9.2 %

  • Net Increase Of 106 Bcf From The Previous Week

    Working gas in storage was 2,631 Bcf as of Friday, June 2, 2017, according to EIA estimates.

    EIA Natural Gas Storage Data:

    • Total (06/02/17): 2,631 Bcf
    • Total (05/26/17): 2,525 Bcf
    • Net change: 106 Bcf
    • Implied flow: 106 Bcf
    • Year ago stocks: 2,963 Bcf
    • % change from year ago: -11.2 %
    • 5-year avg stocks: 2,394 Bcf
    • % change from 5-year avg: 9.9 %

  • Injection Greater Than Most Estimates

    For the week ending May 26th, EIA announced an 81 Bcf net change, against expectations in the low 70’s. Four Bcf of gas in the Mountain region was reclassified from working gas to base gas, which resulted in an implied flow of 85 Bcf.

    EIA Natural Gas Storage Data:

    • Total (05/26/17): 2,525 Bcf (Reclassification)
    • Total (05/19/17): 2,444 Bcf
    • Net change: 81 Bcf
    • Implied flow: 85 Bcf (Reclassification)
    • Year ago stocks: 2,895 Bcf
    • % change from year ago: -12.8 %
    • 5-year avg stocks: 2,300 Bcf
    • % change from 5-year avg: 9.8 %